Naira Could Strengthen to ₦1,400/$ by Year-End Amid Eurobond Hopes, Oil Rally, and FX Reforms
Nigeria’s currency, the naira, is projected to appreciate to ₦1,400 per dollar in the second half of 2025, according to a forecast by investment firm Comercio Partners. This outlook comes despite the naira’s current trading rate of ₦1,535.61 in the official market, indicating cautious optimism based on several economic and policy-driven factors. The firm attributes the projected recovery primarily to anticipated gains from the issuance of Nigeria’s 2025 Eurobond, which has historically boosted the naira’s value, as seen after the December 2024 issuance.
Presenting its H2 2025 Economic Outlook titled “Reconfiguration: From Global Trade to Quantum Innovation – A New Economic Era Emerges,” Comercio’s head of investment research, Ifeanyi Ubah, outlined several drivers behind the optimistic forecast. He highlighted improved foreign exchange inflows, higher global oil prices, and a weakening U.S. dollar as key external and internal catalysts. According to Ubah, a favorable confluence of these elements could strengthen investor confidence and support a stronger naira.
The report outlines three scenarios: a best-case projection of ₦1,400/$, a base case where the naira remains in the ₦1,500–₦1,600 range, and a worst-case scenario where the naira weakens beyond ₦1,700/$ due to falling oil prices, dwindling foreign investments, and rising dollar demand amid global economic turbulence. The base scenario hinges on continued CBN support and stable oil income, while the worst-case envisions macroeconomic shocks and capital outflows.
At the report’s unveiling, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Director General Emomotimi Agama reiterated the SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation while safeguarding investor interests. He emphasized the agency’s active engagement with fintech and blockchain developers and advocated for human capital development through STEM education and digital literacy. Agama also stressed the need for robust collaboration among academia, industry, and government to position Nigeria for a leading role in the quantum economy.
Two expert panels provided additional insights into the broader economic picture. The first panel focused on Nigeria’s internal macroeconomic challenges and included economists and business leaders who warned that structural reforms must be effectively implemented to ensure progress. The second panel analyzed global macroeconomic trends and included top economists and investment managers who discussed the implications of geopolitical shifts and capital flows on Nigeria’s economy. Panelists collectively agreed that without strong execution, positive forecasts could be derailed.
Source: Business day