For the first time in history, the United States became a net exporter of crude oil to Nigeria in February and March 2024, driven by surging demand from the newly operational Dangote Refinery. This shift was highlighted in a recent note by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which emphasized the unusual reversal in oil trade patterns between the two countries, traditionally marked by Nigeria exporting crude to the U.S.
The dramatic change came as the Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest, began processing crude in January 2024 after years of delays. Located near Lagos, the refinery is expected to reach a full production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (b/d) within the year. With its initial ramp-up, the facility significantly increased Nigeria’s need for imported crude, particularly from the U.S., just as East Coast U.S. refinery maintenance reduced domestic demand.
Data from the EIA shows that gross U.S. crude exports to Nigeria reached 111,000 b/d in February and surged to 169,000 b/d in March. Meanwhile, imports from Nigeria to the U.S. fell sharply—from 133,000 b/d in January to 54,000 b/d in February and 72,000 b/d in March—largely due to maintenance at the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey.
Industry analysts caution against viewing this trend as a long-term shift. While the refinery’s early demand played a significant role, changes in domestic supply strategies and maintenance disruptions on both sides have influenced the recent flow dynamics. Eli Tesfaye of RJO Futures and Giovanni Staunovo of UBS both noted that while the U.S.-Nigeria oil flow was notable, future volumes will depend on factors like Dangote’s crude sourcing decisions and U.S. refinery operations.
As operations stabilize, the Dangote Refinery is expected to prioritize securing local crude supplies, which could reduce future reliance on American imports. Nevertheless, this episode illustrates how new infrastructure and global supply-chain dynamics can quickly alter historical trade patterns, even between countries with well-established energy roles. The coming months will determine whether this is a temporary anomaly or a sign of evolving market interdependence.
Source: Leadership