Nigeria’s Rebased GDP Hits ₦372.82 Trillion Amid Worsening Poverty, Public Discontent

Economic Growth Through Rebasing
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has rebased Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), shifting the base year from 2010 to 2019. This adjustment reflects changes in economic structure and activity, raising Nigeria’s nominal GDP to ₦372.82 trillion in 2024 from ₦205.09 trillion in 2019. The rebased figures show a 3.13% growth in Q1 2025 compared to 2.27% in Q1 2024. Significant shifts include real estate overtaking crude oil as the third-largest contributor to GDP, a change attributed to better data coverage, especially of the informal sector, which now accounts for 42.5% of the economy.

Oil Sector Weakens, Non-Oil Sector Expands
Oil production saw a modest increase to 1.62 million barrels per day in Q1 2025, but the sector’s real growth dropped to 1.87%, down from 4.71% in Q1 2024. In contrast, the non-oil sector expanded by 3.19%, driven by telecoms, real estate, financial services, agriculture, and trade. This sector contributed 96.03% to real GDP, underscoring Nigeria’s ongoing economic diversification away from oil dependence. The data reflects structural changes including rising prominence of digital services, modular refineries, pension funds, and mobile payments.

Currency Devaluation Masks Gains
Despite the substantial rise in naira-denominated GDP, the rebased economy appears weaker in dollar terms due to massive naira depreciation. Using the current rate of ₦1,529.53 to the dollar, Nigeria’s economy is valued at approximately $243.5 billion—significantly behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria. This contrasts with the 2014 rebasing, which propelled Nigeria to the top of Africa’s economies. Analysts blame currency collapse, inflation, and weak purchasing power for the declining global position despite nominal growth.

Rising Poverty and Public Skepticism
Amid the rebased GDP figures, the World Bank projects Nigeria’s poverty rate to worsen by 3.6% through 2027. The NBS also reports that 63% of Nigerians (133 million people) are multidimensionally poor. Analysts argue that while economic figures show growth, real development remains stagnant. Inflation and currency devaluation have weakened citizens’ purchasing power, with many questioning the relevance of economic growth that doesn’t reflect in improved living conditions, jobs, or reduced food prices.

Mixed Reactions and the Way Forward
Economists welcome the rebasing for offering a clearer picture of the economy’s structure and potential. However, they emphasize that real impact lies in translating GDP growth into visible improvements in citizens’ lives. From street vendors to school teachers, Nigerians express frustration that the supposed growth remains statistical rather than practical. Experts urge the government to focus on strengthening the naira, boosting self-reliance, and implementing policies that align economic indicators with public welfare.