Nigeria Eyes 25% Hike in OPEC Oil Quota by 2027 Amid Refinery Expansion, Says NNPC

Nigeria is preparing to formally request a 25% increase in its oil production quota from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by 2027, according to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC). The country currently operates under a 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) quota but produces slightly below that figure. Including condensate, Nigeria’s actual daily oil output stands at around 1.65 million bpd. The NNPC, led by Group Chief Executive Officer Bashir Ojulari, believes growing domestic refining capacity now justifies a higher quota.

Ojulari disclosed that Nigeria aims to reach 2 million bpd in production by 2027, made up of 1.7 million bpd of crude and 300,000 bpd of condensates. This is part of a broader target to increase national production capacity to 2.4 million bpd by the same year. Looking even further, Nigeria is planning for a long-term goal of 3 million bpd production, comprising 2.5 million bpd of crude and 500,000 bpd of condensate, with total capacity reaching 3.5 million bpd within three years.

The push for a revised quota coincides with OPEC+ efforts to reassess member nations’ sustainable production capacities ahead of new quota assignments starting in 2027. The OPEC secretariat has been directed to develop a fresh framework for this review, with results expected at the November 30 ministerial meeting. Nigeria intends to use this opportunity to argue for an upward revision of its production baseline, which has remained stagnant due to past underperformance.

Despite past failures to secure an increased quota, Nigeria now believes its improved infrastructure and added refining capabilities offer stronger grounds. Ojulari pointed to recent milestones such as the launch of the 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery and the upcoming addition of 500,000 bpd from modular refining projects. These expansions could provide nearly 1 million bpd of domestic refining capacity within the next 12 to 18 months, creating increased internal demand and justifying higher crude production.

Nigeria is currently bound by its 1.5 million bpd quota until the end of 2026 unless OPEC changes its policy. Ojulari expressed optimism that ongoing dialogue and improved conditions will strengthen Nigeria’s case for a higher limit. “What I want to have by 2027 is 2 million bpd,” he stated, signaling that the NNPC will engage actively in discussions with OPEC to achieve this production goal.

Source: Arise