The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is set to release Nigeria’s long-overdue rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, updating the economic framework for the first time in over a decade. This rebasing is expected to significantly increase the size of Nigeria’s economy by incorporating modern sectors previously excluded—such as mobile payments (Opay, PalmPay), digital services, influencer marketing, short-let real estate, and food delivery platforms. These additions aim to reflect a more accurate picture of how Nigerians earn and spend money today.
While the new GDP figures might portray Nigeria as a larger economy—similar to the 2014 rebasing exercise when it overtook South Africa—it is important to approach this development with balanced expectations. On the upside, rebasing aligns Nigeria with global statistical norms and could boost investor confidence, helping both federal and state governments make data-driven economic decisions. It may also present Nigeria in a more favorable light in international financial circles by improving metrics like the debt-to-GDP ratio.
However, the gains of rebasing come with critical caveats. A larger GDP might expose the country’s poor revenue generation, as the revenue-to-GDP ratio—already among the world’s lowest—may appear even worse. This highlights the need for efficient tax reforms and the expansion of the tax net, especially into informal markets and digital sectors. The Federal Government’s recent efforts to digitize tax collection and widen the base may become even more urgent and necessary.
Another risk is that a lower debt-to-GDP ratio might encourage more borrowing, despite the fact that over 60% of Nigeria’s revenue is already spent servicing existing debt. Furthermore, development benchmarks—such as health, education, and infrastructure spending—could appear lower when measured as a percentage of the new, inflated GDP, even if actual spending remains unchanged. Citizens may find this disconnect frustrating if improvements in public services don’t match the touted economic growth.
Ultimately, while GDP rebasing is a technical necessity and an important milestone in Nigeria’s economic evolution, its benefits will only be meaningful if they translate into real-world improvements for the average Nigerian. It raises important questions about equity, transparency, and the role of government in converting statistical progress into tangible national development. As Ajibola notes, the real issue is not how big the economy looks on paper, but whether that size results in jobs, functioning schools, better hospitals, and an improved standard of living for all.
Source: Leadership