Nigeria’s Oil Production Hits 2025 Low, Threatening Budget and Economic Stability
Nigeria’s oil production has dropped to its lowest level in 2025, raising concerns over the country’s economic outlook and ability to meet its budgetary obligations. According to fresh data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), total crude oil and condensates output fell by 68,177 barrels per day (bpd) in March, bringing daily production down to 1.60 million bpd from 1.67 million in February. This figure includes 1.4 million bpd of crude oil, 55,827 barrels of blended condensates, and 147,166 barrels of unblended condensates.
The March numbers mark the lowest monthly production this year, continuing a downward trend from January’s 1.74 million bpd. With oil revenues forming a major chunk of national income, the decline signals tough times ahead for Africa’s largest oil producer. The average daily output for March stood at 1.6 million barrels, well below the government’s ambitious target of 2.06 million bpd used for 2025 budget projections, which are also based on an oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel.
Adding to Nigeria’s woes, global oil prices have fallen recently due to OPEC+ plans to increase production from May and new tariffs imposed by the United States. These developments, coupled with Nigeria’s inability to meet its production targets, could lead to budget shortfalls, delayed infrastructure projects, and a possible rise in debt levels. Financial experts warn that the nation may have to seek supplementary budgets or international loans to stay afloat.
Industry voices like Jide Pratt, COO of Aiona and country manager at TradeGrid, have flagged the need for urgent economic reforms. He warned that the oil price dip and weakened production expose Nigeria’s over-reliance on crude oil. Pratt emphasized the need for Nigeria to diversify its economy, suggesting investments in agriculture, fintech, and trade, as well as exploring asset sales to the private sector to boost growth and resilience.
Source: Business day