A recent Reuters poll of 18 economists predicts that the Russian rouble will weaken to around 100 to the U.S. dollar within a year, despite a significant rally earlier this year. The rouble has gained about 25% against the dollar in 2025, largely due to improving geopolitical relations between Russia and the U.S., which have raised hopes for a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine conflict. However, the rouble’s strength has created potential risks for Russia’s economy, particularly regarding its budget deficit, which may force the government to borrow more than expected.
Analysts foresee the rouble trading around 97 to the dollar by the end of September 2025, with a continued weakening trend over the next year. Despite its strength in the short term, factors such as ongoing geopolitical developments will play a significant role in determining its future movements. According to Kirill Sokolov from Sovkombank, the rouble will likely maintain its current levels in April, with fluctuations depending on how international relations evolve.
While geopolitical factors remain unpredictable, Alpha Bank’s Natalya Orlova emphasized that even if sanctions on Russia are eased and export volumes rise, a significant rouble depreciation is not imminent. She noted that the strengthening phase of the rouble seems to have ended, but reasons for a sharp decline are not yet in place. In contrast, previous forecasts had predicted a rouble value of 105 to the dollar by this time.
The Bank of Russia is expected to keep its key interest rate at 21% during its upcoming meeting in April, maintaining its stance as the highest level since the early 2000s. Analysts predict a reduction to 20% by the second quarter, with possible rate cuts starting in the second half of the year. Inflation forecasts have been slightly adjusted, with economists now projecting a 6.8% increase for the year, while economic growth remains at 1.7%.
Source: Reuters