Experts Predict Strong Q4 GDP Growth in Nigeria but Full Year May Fall Short
Nigeria’s economy is projected to see a strong Q4 2024 GDP growth, surpassing the 3.46% recorded in Q3 2024. Analysts predict that the festive season’s increased commercial activity, a trade surplus, and continued strong performance in the services sector will contribute to the higher growth rate. However, the full-year GDP is expected to fall short of the government’s 3.75% growth target, as experts forecast a lower overall figure for 2024. The country’s GDP growth rate has remained modest, but positive, in the face of ongoing economic challenges.
According to industry experts, including Onyinyechi Onwubu and Moyosore Onanuga, the boost from seasonal demand and a trade surplus is expected to drive the Q4 GDP to between 3.5% and 3.6%. Despite this, the annual growth is expected to be below the 3.46% reported for Q3. The services sector, particularly industries such as telecommunications, banking, and FinTech, continues to be the primary growth driver, contributing over 50% to GDP.
Samuel Oyekanmi, Research Lead at Norrenberger, highlights that Nigeria’s GDP grew by an average of 3.21% from January to September 2024, with an estimated full-year growth of 3.3%. This marks a modest yet consistent economic expansion, despite the challenges posed by contractionary policies. The expected rebasing of GDP figures in 2025 is also anticipated to impact future growth expectations, though it will more accurately reflect the country’s economic activity.
The Nigerian government is also implementing several reforms, including changes to the oil sector, tax policies, and monetary adjustments, aimed at boosting economic stability and long-term growth. Key initiatives such as restructuring the NNPC, enhancing revenue collection through tax increases, and adopting a hawkish monetary policy are expected to support economic recovery and resilience. While these measures show promise, the country’s GDP growth rate for 2024 remains below official projections, underscoring the challenges ahead.
SOURCE: nairametrics