Nigeria’s services sector is projected to account for 55 to 60 percent of its rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025, an increase from its current contribution of 53 percent. The rebasing exercise, according to Meristem Securities, will also see the oil sector contributing between 5 to 10 percent, while agriculture’s share is expected to fall below 25 percent. Experts predict the rebasing will highlight emerging sectors like fintech, tech startups, and digital services while improving the measurement of underreported areas such as arts and entertainment, potentially driving growth in these fields.
Historically, GDP rebasing has revealed larger economic activity, as demonstrated in 2014 when Nigeria’s GDP increased by 90 percent, integrating new sectors like real estate and healthcare. However, analysts warn that while rebased GDP figures may show significant statistical growth, they might not translate to real economic improvements. Challenges such as inflation, low productivity, and policy inconsistencies continue to dampen the country’s economic potential, with Nigeria now ranked fourth in Africa by GDP size, trailing South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria.
For sustainable growth, analysts recommend structural reforms, including debt reduction and investment-friendly policies. Firms like CFG Advisory emphasize restructuring Nigeria’s capital framework by monetizing joint venture oil assets to raise $30–50 billion. These funds could be utilized to reduce debt, stabilize the naira, and enhance the country’s credit rating. While the rebasing exercise may enhance statistical representation, experts stress that coordinated fiscal and monetary reforms are essential to addressing underlying economic challenges and achieving long-term stability.
