BMI, the research arm of Fitch Solutions, anticipates a shift toward monetary easing in Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies in 2025, driven by declining inflation and greater alignment in regional monetary policies. Inflation across the region is projected to decrease from 16.4% in 2024 to 14.2% in 2025, spurred by lower energy prices and improved currency stability. However, inflationary pressures from factors like naira devaluation and subsidy removal are expected to keep Nigeria’s inflation above 27% through 2024, with some relief in the following year.
The decline in global energy costs, with Brent crude forecasted to drop to $76 per barrel, is expected to support growth in economies such as Kenya, South Africa, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Non-oil resource-intensive countries like Ethiopia and Côte d’Ivoire are predicted to lead regional growth, with projected expansions of 4.7% or higher. Meanwhile, the DRC and Zambia stand to benefit from increased demand for critical minerals amid the global energy transition. Conversely, oil-exporting nations like Angola and Nigeria face slower growth due to underinvestment and low oil prices.
Despite challenges, BMI projects SSA’s GDP growth to rise to 3.8% in 2025, up from 3.5% in 2024. Key factors include declining energy costs, economic liberalization, and rebuilding post-conflict economies. However, structural vulnerabilities such as high inflation in some regions and external economic pressures remain risks. The report highlights that careful monetary easing will play a critical role in stimulating economic activity while navigating these persistent challenges.
