The naira is expected to recover in 2025, driven by increased foreign exchange inflows, reduced petrol and food importation, and improved oil exports. Experts attribute this optimism to domestic refining capacity growth, higher oil production, and enhanced agricultural output, which could ease pressure on foreign exchange demand. Additional factors include foreign portfolio investments, diaspora remittances, and stronger external reserves, crucial for economic stability and investor confidence.
Key policy changes, such as introducing the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) and the relaxation of bans on 41 restricted items in the official FX market, have also boosted transparency and liquidity. Analysts like Uche Uwaleke and Zeal Akaraiwe foresee a turning point for the naira, as these measures address past inefficiencies and restore confidence in Nigeria’s FX market. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has reiterated its commitment to maintaining stability through interventions and enhanced policy consistency.
Despite a challenging 2024, where the naira ranked among the world’s worst-performing currencies, recent data signals progress. The currency appreciated slightly in the official market, supported by reduced speculation and rising FX inflows. While achieving parity with pre-depreciation levels remains unlikely, experts suggest a realistic exchange rate of N1000 to N1200 per dollar, reflecting gradual stabilization and market improvements.