Oil price forecasts for 2024 have been downgraded due to weak fuel demand from China, the world’s top importer, and increasing inventory levels.
A Reuters poll of 37 analysts and economists predicts Brent crude will average $82.86 per barrel in 2024, a decrease from the $83.66 forecast in July. U.S. crude is expected to average $78.82 per barrel, slightly lower than the previous estimate.
Analysts noted that despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices have remained below $90 per barrel.
This is attributed to lower crude intake from China and Europe, which has offset the impact of OPEC’s reduced supplies.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) is set to ease some output cuts in October, but the possibility of further supply disruptions could still drive prices higher.
The forecast also reflects concerns over global oil demand growth, with projections lowered to 1.0 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024, down from previous estimates.
Rising U.S. inventory levels and the planned production increase by OPEC+ are expected to keep downward pressure on prices.
However, the situation remains fluid, and any significant escalation in conflicts or supply disruptions could push prices above $90 per barrel.