The U.S. healthcare sector is experiencing a resurgence, marked by a 6% climb in the S&P 500 healthcare sector since the start of December. This outpaces the broader index during the same period, doubling its gains. The sector’s lackluster performance in 2023, with only a 0.3% increase compared to the S&P 500’s 24% jump, has made it an attractive proposition for investors seeking undervalued opportunities. Cheap valuations, coupled with the potential for a rally in areas beyond tech and growth stocks, contribute to renewed investor interest in the healthcare sector.
Key Points:
- Underperformance in 2023: The healthcare sector faced challenges in 2023, trailing behind as investors favored massive tech and growth stocks. Concerns over new obesity treatments impacting medical demand coincided with a decrease in demand for COVID-19-related products, contributing to the sector’s underperformance.
- Attractiveness of Undervalued Sectors: Investors are drawn to undervalued sectors, and healthcare, with its 17.9 times forward earnings estimates compared to the S&P 500’s P/E ratio of 19.7, presents a discount of 9%. Historically, healthcare has traded at a 4% premium to the broader index. Some investors see potential in areas that didn’t perform well in 2023, and healthcare aligns with this strategy.
- Expectations of Broader Market Rally: Investors anticipate that the rally observed in tech and growth stocks could extend to other market segments. This trend began late last year when banks, small caps, and other less favored areas experienced increased buying activity.
- Earnings Outlook: Healthcare companies are expected to see a 17.5% increase in profits in 2024, surpassing the 11.1% rise projected for the S&P 500 overall. The optimistic earnings outlook contributes to the sector’s attractiveness.
- Discounts in Specific Healthcare Areas: Excluding Eli Lilly, large-cap drugmakers and biotech companies tracked by JPMorgan were trading at a 30% discount to the S&P 500, marked as a “historically low” level. Some areas of healthcare offer more substantial discounts, making them appealing to value investors.
- Cautionary Factors: While the healthcare sector shows promise, caution is advised. Factors such as a stable but slowing economy, decreasing inflation, and falling interest rates might favor the big tech and growth stocks that performed well in the previous year. Healthcare stocks historically struggle during presidential election years, and their performance could be impacted by political considerations.
- Presidential Election Dynamics: Despite historical challenges, some investors believe the risks in the upcoming presidential election year might be lower. The expectation of divided government control diminishes the likelihood of significant legislative changes affecting the healthcare industry. President Joe Biden’s previous actions addressing drug prices also contribute to a perception of reduced uncertainty.
The recent revival of the U.S. healthcare sector, marked by a December climb and growing investor interest, is influenced by factors such as cheap valuations, potential broader market rallies, and an optimistic earnings outlook. While cautionary factors exist, including historical trends in election years, the current landscape with divided government control and existing healthcare legislation may contribute to a more favorable environment for healthcare stocks in 2024. Investors, attracted by undervalued opportunities, see potential in sectors that didn’t perform well in the previous year, with healthcare emerging as a promising candidate for renewed attention. The sector’s performance in the coming months will be closely watched, especially in the context of broader market dynamics and election-related considerations.
