Westpac Banking Corp’s potential spin-off of its New Zealand unit due to tighter regulation could see some of the other three Australian-owned banks that make-up the bulk of the kiwi banking system follow its lead, investors and analysts said.
Seeking to safeguard the New Zealand banking system, an increasingly activist central bank has been progressively separating the operations and capital of the local units from their Australian parents.
The high costs involved have challenged the outlooks of the Australian-headquartered Big Four lenders, with analysts estimating their return on equity ratios could fall by between half and a third from the about 15% they used to deliver.
“All banks would be considering the same question, given changes in regulatory and capital requirements,” said Sean Sequeira, chief investment officer at Australian Eagle Asset Management.
The units of the Big Four – Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank, and Westpac – dominate over 85% of the New Zealand banking market.
In 2017, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) introduced a requirement to have the ability to run the subsidiaries locally within six hours notice, if needed, and in 2019 it asked them to almost double their local capital levels within seven years.
The capital requirements were extended by a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
On Wednesday, freshly sanctioned by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand for the poor risk governance of its unit, Westpac said it was in the “very early” stages of assessing a demerger.
RBNZ said Westpac NZ had, for years, operated outside of its own risk settings for technology, and would have to raise its cash holdings until it improves governance.
“Westpac will not be the only Australian bank looking at its NZ operations,” Jefferies banking analysts Brian Johnson said.
Like its competitors, Westpac has been offloading businesses it considers non-core to focus on its home market, and spinning off the New Zealand units or selling them would be in line with that strategy.
This week, New Zealand also introduced more measures to cool its housing market that analysts expect will hit mortgage growth in the country.
With profitability becoming more challenging, “we don’t think an Australian bank owning a New Zealand bank makes sense,” Johnson said.
-Reuters