Resurgent worries about rising U.S. bond yields hit global shares on Thursday as investors waited to see if Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will address concerns about the risk of a rapid rise in long-term borrowing costs.
The spectre of higher U.S. bond yields also undermined low-yielding, safe-haven assets, such as the yen, the Swiss franc and gold.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 1.477%, heading back towards a one-year high of 1.614% set last week on bets on a strong economic recovery aided by government stimulus and progress in vaccination programmes.
“It is not clear how the Fed wants to deal with bond yields,” said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities.
“The pace of rises in yields has been far faster than most people have expected and there’s speculation the authorities may be starting to think about tightening their policy.”
Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.9% while Britain’s FTSE futures edged down 0.5% lower.
The MSCI’s ex-Japan Asian-Pacific shares lost 1.8% in early trade while Japan’s Nikkei fell 2.2%.
E-mini S&P futures slipped 0.4% while the futures for the Nasdaq, the unequivocal leader of the post-pandemic rally, fell 0.7%, hitting a two-month low.
Tech shares are vulnerable because their lofty valuation has been supported by expectations of a prolonged period of low interest rates.
But the market is laser-focused on Powell, who is due to speak at a Wall Street Journal conference at 12:05 p.m. EST (1705 GMT), in what will be his last outing before the Fed’s policy-making committee convenes March 16-17.
Many Fed officials have downplayed the rise in Treasury yields in recent days, although Fed Governor Lael Brainard on Tuesday acknowledged concerns over the possibility a rapid rise in yields could dampen economic activity.
In addition, anxiety is building over a pending regulatory change in a rule called the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, which could make it more costly for banks to hold bonds.
“The market is likely to be unstable until this regulation issue will be sorted out,” said Masahiko Loo, portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein. “There aren’t people who want to catch a falling knife when market volatility is so high.”
In addition, the market will also have to grapple with a huge increase in debt sales after rounds of stimulus to deal with a recession triggered by the pandemic.
The issue is not limited to the United States, with the 10-year UK Gilts yield jumping back to 0.779%, near its 11-month high of 0.836% hit last week, after the government unveiled much higher borrowing.
Currency investors continued to snap up dollars as they bet on the U.S. economy outshining peers in the developed world in coming months. [FRX/]
The dollar rose to a seven-month high of 107.16 yen.
“U.S. dollar/yen has been on a one-way trajectory since the start of 2021,” said Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
“The brightening outlook for the world economy is a positive for both U.S. dollar/yen and Australian dollar/yen.”
-Reuters